Plan your workforce future with precision
Forecast transforms your Pulse data into forward-looking intelligence. Model scenarios, project staffing needs, and close gaps before they affect patient care.
Data Flow
Built on your Pulse data
Forecast requires an active Senzo Pulse subscription. Your historical workforce data powers every projection, ensuring forecasts are grounded in real operational patterns -not industry averages.
Data Pipeline
Supply
Headcount, FTE, inflows, outflows, turnover
Workload
Hours, overtime, agency, absence, utilization
Demand
Budgeted FTE, staffing ratios, census targets
Projections
Scenarios, gap analysis, severity, recommendations
Supply-side
AvailableProject workforce trajectory from inflows and outflows
Gap analysis
AvailableCompare supply against workload and utilization targets
Demand-based
Coming soonFull requirement modeling from census and acuity data
Stock-flow workforce modeling
Forecast uses a stock-flow model -the gold standard for health workforce planning used by the WHO, HRSA, and national workforce planning bodies worldwide. Instead of relying on simple trend extrapolation, stock-flow modeling tracks the actual mechanisms that grow and shrink your workforce over time.
Supply-side projection
St+1 = St + ΣI - ΣO
where I = {hires, transfers_in, returns, conversions}
where O = {vol_turnover, invol_turnover, transfers_out, LOA}
Project headcount and FTE trajectory from workforce inflows and outflows. Iterated monthly across the forecast horizon per facility, unit, and provider type.
Workload gap analysis
G = Sproj - (W × Utarget)
where W = f(hours, OT%, agency%, absence%)
where Utarget = configured utilization threshold
Layer workload metrics over supply projections. Quantify where overtime reliance, agency dependency, or absence rates signal understaffing -expressed as gap % impact.
Demand-based modeling
Dreq = f(C, A, R) - Sproj
where C = census, A = acuity, R = staffing ratios
where demand derived from patient need, not supply
Model required FTE from patient demand signals -census projections, acuity levels, and mandated ratios. Compare against supply to find true shortfalls by role and unit.
Inflows
New hires
External recruitment pipeline
Transfers in
Internal mobility from other units
Return from leave
Staff returning from extended absence
Contract conversions
Agency-to-permanent transitions
Outflows
Voluntary turnover
Resignations and retirements
Involuntary turnover
Terminations and RIFs
Transfers out
Internal moves to other units
Leave of absence
Extended medical, parental, or personal leave
Each inflow and outflow component is independently configurable. Set hiring rates based on your recruitment pipeline capacity, model turnover using historical patterns or adjusted targets, and account for seasonal variations in leave and transfers. The stock-flow approach ensures your projections capture the real workforce dynamics that simple headcount trending misses.
Configurable assumptions at every level
Your health system is not monolithic -neither are your forecasts. Forecast lets you define assumptions at four hierarchical scopes, with more specific assumptions automatically overriding broader defaults.
Global
Level 1Organization-wide defaults that apply across all facilities and provider types
Facility
Level 2overrides Level 1Facility-specific overrides for sites with unique staffing dynamics or market conditions
Unit
Level 3overrides Level 2Unit-level assumptions for departments with distinct turnover or growth patterns
Provider type
Level 4overrides Level 3Role-based assumptions reflecting different labor markets for RNs, CNAs, physicians, and allied health
Auto-calculated baselines
Senzo calculates baseline assumptions from your most recent 12 months of Pulse data -turnover rates, hiring velocity, absence patterns, and growth trends. Accept as-is or adjust for planned changes like new graduate programs or anticipated retirement waves.
Flexible projection intervals
Run projections at monthly, quarterly, or annual intervals. Monthly for near-term operational planning. Annual for strategic workforce plans and board-level reporting. Mix intervals across scenarios to compare tactical and strategic views.
Scenario modeling for confident decisions
The future is uncertain -your planning shouldn't be. Forecast lets you build unlimited scenarios, each with its own set of assumptions, so you can compare outcomes and stress-test your workforce strategy before committing resources.
Baseline
Current trajectoryWhat happens if nothing changes? The baseline scenario uses auto-calculated assumptions from your historical data to project forward under current conditions. This is your reference point -the trajectory your workforce is already on.
Optimistic
Best caseWhat happens if your initiatives succeed? Model the impact of improved retention programs, accelerated recruitment pipelines, expanded graduate programs, or favorable market conditions.
Conservative
Stress testWhat happens if conditions worsen? Increase attrition rates, reduce hiring velocity, add a new competitor entering your market, or model the impact of a recession on agency costs.
Custom
What-ifWhat happens if you open a new facility, close a unit, expand a service line, or restructure your care model? Test any combination of assumptions against your current workforce.
Each scenario runs the full stock-flow projection engine independently, producing its own headcount trajectory, FTE projections, and gap analysis. Compare scenarios side by side to see where outcomes converge and where they diverge.
Gap analysis that drives action
Knowing you will be short-staffed is only useful if you know where, when, and by how much. Forecast's gap analysis compares projected workforce supply against your defined demand targets at every level of your organization -then prioritizes the gaps that need attention first.
Supply vs. Demand
Projected supply
Where your workforce is headed based on current inflows, outflows, and retention patterns
Gap
Demand target
Where your workforce needs to be based on budgeted FTE, staffing ratios, or census projections
Forecast calculates gaps by facility, unit, and provider type -so you can see exactly which departments and roles will be understaffed, and when.
Prioritized severity levels
Projected shortfall exceeds 15% of required FTE - immediate recruitment or reallocation required
Projected shortfall between 5–15% - proactive pipeline building recommended within 90 days
Projected shortfall under 5% - monitor trends and prepare contingency plans
Supply meets or exceeds demand - optimize allocation and review for surplus redeployment
Operationally integrated
Forecast is not a standalone planning tool -it is deeply connected to your live Pulse data, creating a continuous feedback loop between current operations and future strategy.
Real-time
baseline sync
Live data foundation
Every forecast starts from your current Pulse metrics -actual headcount, real turnover rates, observed absence patterns. As new data flows into Pulse, your forecast baselines update automatically.
Monthly
accuracy checks
Assumption validation
As months pass and actuals come in through Pulse, Forecast compares your projected values against what actually happened. Continuous validation improves forecast accuracy with every cycle.
Unified
data structure
Drill-down continuity
The same organizational hierarchy you use in Pulse -facilities, units, provider types -carries directly into Forecast. Navigate from system-level down to a specific unit's projected shortage.
Closed
feedback loop
From insight to action
When Pulse Intelligence flags a rising turnover trend, Forecast shows the downstream staffing impact. When Forecast identifies a future gap, Pulse gives the operational context to understand why.
From data to decisions in three steps
Connect Pulse data
Forecast automatically ingests your historical Pulse metrics -no additional setup required. Baseline assumptions are calculated from your most recent 12 months of data.
Model scenarios
Define assumptions, adjust variables, and build multiple workforce scenarios. Compare baseline, optimistic, and stress-test outcomes to understand the range of possible futures.
Act on insights
Use gap analysis and prioritized recommendations to align recruitment, retention, and reallocation to your workforce strategy -with board-ready reports to support the case.
Strategic planning capabilities
Every tool your workforce planning team needs to move from reactive to proactive.
Multi-scenario Modeling
Build best-case, expected, and stress-test scenarios side by side. Adjust variables like growth rate, attrition, and hiring velocity to see how each path affects your workforce.
Supply-Demand Projections
Project workforce supply and patient demand by role, unit, and facility over 1–5 year horizons. Identify where surpluses and shortfalls will emerge.
Attrition & Retirement Forecasting
Model retirement eligibility, tenure-based attrition risk, and early departure signals to anticipate workforce turnover before it happens.
Gap Analysis
Quantify the gap between projected supply and demand. Receive prioritized recommendations for recruitment, retention, and reallocation strategies.
What-if Planning
Test the impact of policy changes, new facilities, service line expansions, or external market shifts on your workforce requirements.
Board-ready Reports
Export forecasting outputs as presentation-ready reports. Share scenario comparisons, gap analyses, and strategic recommendations with leadership.
Multiple forecasting approaches
Different workforce questions require different methodologies. Forecast supports multiple approaches so you always have the right tool for the planning challenge at hand.
Stock-Flow
AvailableThe supply-side workhorse. Models workforce dynamics through inflows and outflows -hiring, turnover, retirements, transfers -to project headcount and FTE trajectories over time.
Needs-Based
Coming soonDemand-side modeling grounded in patient need. Projects required staffing levels based on population health indicators, service utilization patterns, and census projections.
Hybrid
Coming soonThe complete picture. Combines stock-flow supply projections with needs-based demand modeling for integrated gap analyses.
Ready to transform your workforce strategy?
Join healthcare organizations that use Senzo to turn workforce data into operational clarity.